Prediction Markets UK: Polymarket and Kalshi

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have gone mainstream, but if you are in the UK you have probably hit a wall: most of them will not let you in. This guide covers what prediction markets are, whether you can legally use Polymarket or Kalshi from the UK, and why, from a personal-finance point of view, they belong in the same box as betting rather than investing.

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market lets people trade on the outcome of a future event. Instead of a share in a company, you buy a contract that pays out if a specific thing happens: an election result, a sports score, an interest-rate decision, or "will X happen by a certain date".

Each contract is a simple yes/no. Prices run from 0 to 100 (in pence or cents) and read like the crowd's implied probability. A contract trading at 65 means the market thinks there is roughly a 65% chance the event happens. If you are right, it settles at 100. If you are wrong, it settles at 0 and your stake is gone.

The two best-known platforms are Polymarket, which settles bets in cryptocurrency (the USDC stablecoin), and Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the American derivatives regulator. Both have huge volumes. Neither is built for British users.

Can you use Polymarket in the UK?

Not officially. Polymarket blocks UK users. It geoblocks British IP addresses and does not hold a licence from the UK Gambling Commission, so it cannot lawfully offer its service to people in Great Britain.

People do try to get around the block with a VPN. That is a bad idea for reasons that have nothing to do with whether you get caught. The moment you use a workaround, you are off-side with the platform's own terms, which means it can freeze or refuse to pay out your funds. There is no UK consumer protection, no Financial Services Compensation Scheme cover, and no ombudsman to complain to. You would be putting real money on a foreign platform that has specifically said it does not want UK customers.

What about Kalshi and other platforms?

Kalshi is US-only. The UK is on its published list of restricted countries, alongside places like Canada, France and Australia. So the two biggest names in the space are both closed to UK residents.

What you can access legally from the UK is narrower and more familiar:

UK-licensed betting exchanges already let you back and lay yes/no outcomes on sport and some events, and spread-betting firms offer event-style bets under FCA rules. A small number of UK operators are also starting to launch prediction-style markets aimed at British users. These at least come with UK licensing and consumer protections, but make no mistake about what they are: gambling products.

Are prediction markets legal in the UK?

This is a grey area, and it is moving. Crypto-settled prediction markets are not explicitly banned by UK law. The problem is the other side of the transaction: offering this kind of betting to UK consumers without a Gambling Commission licence is what crosses the line, which is exactly why Polymarket walls off British users rather than risk it.

The Gambling Commission has signalled that current prediction-market products would likely fall within its definition of a betting intermediary under existing law, and formal guidance is expected. The FCA, meanwhile, regulates the spread-bet-style financial versions. The activity sits awkwardly between gambling regulation and financial regulation, and the direction of travel is tighter rules, not looser ones. If you are relying on the current position, check it, because it is likely to change.

Prediction markets are speculation, not investing

Here is the part that matters for your money. A prediction market is a zero-sum bet. For every pound someone wins, someone else loses a pound, minus the platform's cut. Nobody is building a productive asset. There is no underlying business growing its earnings, no dividend, no compounding. It is speculation dressed up in the language of markets, and it sits far closer to gambling than to investing.

That is the opposite of investing. When you buy a global index fund you own a slice of thousands of real companies that get more valuable over decades. When you buy a prediction-market contract you own a coin-flip with a spread against you. The probabilities can be sharp, and a few skilled traders do win, but the structure guarantees that most participants lose over time once costs are taken out. It is the same maths that makes spread bets and CFDs such a fast way to lose money.

If prediction markets appeal to you, the honest framing is entertainment. Use money you can afford to lose entirely, the same way you would the cost of a night out, and keep it completely separate from your savings and investments. The path to financial freedom is deliberately boring: a high savings rate, low-cost funds, and time. A bet on next month's headline is not a wealth strategy, however good the odds look on the screen.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is not licensed by the UK Gambling Commission and blocks UK users, so it cannot lawfully serve people in Great Britain. The underlying activity is not explicitly banned, but the platform itself is off-limits, and the regulatory position is expected to tighten.

Can I use a VPN to access Polymarket from the UK?

You can technically connect through a VPN, but doing so breaches Polymarket's own terms, which puts your funds at risk of being frozen or withheld. You also give up any UK consumer protection. It is not worth it.

Is Kalshi available in the UK?

No. Kalshi restricts access to the United States and lists the UK among the countries it does not serve.

Are prediction markets gambling or investing?

They are gambling in substance: zero-sum bets on event outcomes with a built-in margin against you. They are not investing, because there is no productive asset growing in value behind the contract.

Do prediction markets predict the future accurately?

They are often good at aggregating opinion into a probability, but a price is not a promise. A contract at 80 still loses one time in five, and markets can be wrong, manipulated, or thin. Treat the number as a crowd estimate, not a fact.

This article is general information, not financial advice. Prediction markets are a form of gambling: only ever stake money you can afford to lose, and check the current UK legal position before acting. The regulatory position described here is accurate as of June 2026 and is expected to change.