How to Spot a Bubble: Tulipmania to the S&P 500

Bubbles follow a six-stage pattern that has been near-identical from 17th-century tulips to dot-com tech and crypto.

Books like Devil Take the Hindmost, A Short History of Financial Euphoria and Manias, Panics and Crashes lay out the warning signs clearly. They are not subtle.

The S&P 500 in 2026 has several bubble fingerprints (high CAPE, narrow leadership, retail enthusiasm) but lacks the leverage profile of a classic mania.

You do not need to time the top. A boring global tracker, a value tilt, and a refusal to buy on margin gets you most of the protection most people need.